So, the trigger was pulled on all the materials except the 1.5" webbing and clips. Since I won't need those until last, they can wait. The inspiration here was "Chinese food container" and I will explain my reasoning.
The fully assembled and secured case will be roughly 6" x 12" x 12" like I previously posted, but sealing all the sides to be waterproof would be a massive pain in the ass. There would be a requirement for additional panels to wrap around the case, and even then it would take all manner of engineering to rig it correctly on such a small budget. I had to scrap the idea of designing it around what the panels would hold, and instead design it around a closed case - meaning the bottom panel would now be the starting point of the design.
The first step will be using hot glue to line up the full size panels on top of each other before securing with staples. Second step will be using a metal edge and utility knife to cut another four panels in half, and repeat the process of squaring and stapling. that makes all seven panels required for the body. The steel rods are only 2.5mm thick, so we will take four pairs of those, cap them with rubber paracord tips, and hot glue to secure those in place - this way the steel rods will not puncture the tarp from normal wear and tear. The four reinforced rods will be at the long edge of the bottom and top panel for extra support when carrying.
When carried, we will still have a handle on top, and we will be replacing the cross-body strap with a removable shoulder strap, but the mechanism has changed from fold-out to fall-down to open. The tarp uses less material this way; simply comp and trace the pattern, then cut everything but the bottom edge of the image below - that will be our fold line. Fold it in on itself so that the brown is the visible layer and add an extra inch to the outline, like one would do in a fabric pattern. This outline will be how we seal the panels and rods inside each section of tarp as we go, dab of glue at the corners, then staples along the outline. Leave slight gaps between panels so there is limited movement to shift and fold.
The key element of waterproofing the case comes from the four diagonal parts of the tarp at the main part of the image - when the box is closed, it will resemble a bucket inside. I did this not only to ensure that water could not get in from the outside, but that water could also be stored inside the case in an emergency (with the items removed first, of course). The two side flaps on the top panel would drape over the two open seams at the top, meaning even in the rain the closed box will not have water getting inside.
The tops of the two side panels will have an adjustable and detachable 1.5" shoulder strap, with metal attach points secured with 1" webbing. When fully boxed up, there will also be two sets of 1.5" straps attached at the back of the case, cut in the middle with buckles affixed. Once the box itself is assembled, I can move onto the individual pockets and pouches for the storage layout.
Seeing as how most of the items thus far have a longest dimension of 6" or less, and the case will probably rest around 6.5" inside, a lot of real estate is opened for the interior. Instead of my original plan to use a 12" x 12" panel for the emergency shelter, I can now fit everything along the bottom panel, still leaving me with 6" x 9" x 12" of storage above that for food and sundries.
As far as sundries go, I have a bag of red glowsticks that can be used in a pinch for lighting (why I purchased them) as well as blacklight pen lights. I can make a small firestarting kit that fits in an Altoids tin (cotton balls, magnesium shavings, flint and steel, Bic lighter). Order a 12 pack of emergency rations (either coffee bean or honey butter) for roughly a five day food supply. Get some collapsible plastic bottles for water (which I can quickly fill at home before leaving), and include purification tablets I already possess (probably the same five days' worth). Build a small first aid kit. Include some lengths of paracord. A multi-tool. A knife. Maybe a folding hand saw. Tiny sewing kit. Some KN95 masks in a Ziploc bag. That's a whole survival kit in a small case.
It would also be a smart idea to attach some webbing on the sides and a mesh net on the exterior of the outer panel to give me access to store a poncho, emergency radio, other small implements that may prove useful in an emergency. While the radio should be kept in the waterproof inside, it's in a black tactical pouch currently, so black against brown isn't so bad in most conditions. Besides, it takes up the same space as the tent and sleeping bags at the bottom, so once the shelter is setup, the radio can just get dropped inside.
While the inventory case from Sons of the Forest had badass LED strips that changed color, I don't see this as a practical option. If I need a bug out bag, it's because I am trying to avoid detection, not invite it. It's why the red glow sticks are included, and truth be told I could probably throw in my other rechargeable headlamp that has red light. In fact, I will do exactly that, plus a USB cable or two with wall charger.
With every emergency need covered, that means I can save room and time in a larger pack for other "quick grab" items - hatchet, machete, rainfly, hammock and ratchet straps, personal wipes, more water tabs, more food, mess kit, more first aid, spare socks and shirts, etc. Again, I am not EXPECTING to need to bug out of where I live anytime soon, but with everything being what it is these days, you can hardly blame me. Plus it would be a vital addition to the camper van in case I am ever broken down in the middle of nowhere and need to physically hike for help.
The things we do to keep our brains active during periods of inactivity, amirite?

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